PLAIN TALK

Leonard Horwin October 18, 2004

(310) 785-6600 tel.

(310) 785-6644 fax

plaintalk@linkline.com

http://www.leonardhorwinplaintalk.com

Anticipating the Possibly Inevitable?

Questions and Answers are cited below as “Q” and “A”

1. Q: What do we have in mind as possibly inevitable?

A: Our careful exit from Iraq for the reasons that very probably it has become evident that our war there against the forces of terror is nevertheless not sufficiently supported by the Iraqis whom the U.S. intended to be principal beneficiaries of our intended removal of the murderous Saddam Hussein dictatorship.

That removal was intended also to serve the security interests of the United States and its allies.

2. Q: What seems so foreseeable in Iraq?

A: It is evident from the recent reports out of Iraq coupled with the supporting data from our related enemies in Iran, that the costs to the United States and its allies of winning the war against Iraq, may outweigh the probable benefits, if any, from that war.

3. Q: Is there a relevant historical example, and if so, what?

A: The answer is yes. And the prime historical example is Viet Nam.

4. Q: How do you calculate that?

A: The United States lost approximately 58,226 Americans killed and/or missing in action in that war. Most of the losses occurred after we had been sufficiently warned by the outcome of our warfare there that the cost of attempting to finish that war with a victory over Ho Chi Minh, would be unsupportable in the United States and worldwide. That war in its essence was an Asiatic jungle civil war in which the United States should never have let itself become involved. An exit from Viet Nam in that instance had become much more indispensable than the situation we now confront in Iraq, where a graceful exit in time with appropriate safeguards for our security interests, remain possible now if corrective action is taken promptly.

5. Q: Why do you say that?

A: The cost to U.S. dead and wounded of our warfare in Iraq, is presently consistent with a graceful and minimum cost and security debit if brought without delay to a graceful conclusion, albeit, –without victory or excessive defeat of our goals for Iraq and U.S. security.

6. Q: Do you see any prospect of a graceful turnaround or even an allied victory if, as suggested by President Bush, we add to our military manpower in Iraq the U.S. National Guard, for which the President purports a special affection?

A: Definitely not. A turnaround in our favor by further investment of manpower, equipment and money while Iraq is already beset by terrorists cooperating with Iraqi and other guerillas, appears increasingly non-viable without adequate support, –which appears to be unlikely, from the Iraqis themselves.

7. Q: What are the principal benefits from a graceful exit now from Iraq, rather than delaying to test further possibilities?

A: The only legitimate test of further possibilities of victory in Iraq involves,–as we know from Viet Nam, –the unlikely turnaround, notwithstanding the kind of forbidding investment of American lives and property, as well as that of our allies, which we should have learned from Viet Nam, would be required in such a test.

That further test is only avoidable by learning our lesson and acting accordingly, in time to avoid the forbidding investment in American lives, property and prestige, –plus that of our allies, –which was the consequence of failure to learn our lessons in time and act accordingly, in the exemplar case of the U.S. War in View Nam.

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cc: George W. Bush, President

Richard Cheney, Vice President

Colin Powell, Secretary of State

Donald Rumsfeld, Secretary of Defense

Paul Wolfowitz, Deputy Secretary of Defense

John Kerry, Senator

John Edwards, Senator

Henry Kissinger, Former Secretary of State

George Mitchell, Former Senator from Maine

John McCain, Senator

Sam Nunn, Former Senator from Georgia

Rudy Giuliani, Former Mayor NY City

Ayad Allawi, Prime Minister of Iraq

Condoleezza Rice, National Security

Advisor

Colonel Oliver North

Tom Ridge, Secretary of Homeland

Security

John Ashcroft, U.S. Attorney General

Tony Blair, Prime Minister of Great Britain

Jack Straw, British Foreign Secretary

Newt Gingrich, Former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives

Ariel Sharon, Prime Minister of Israel

Benjamin Netanyahu, Economy Minister

for the Israeli Government

Israel’s “Women In Green”

National Unity Coalition for Israel

Arianna Huffington, Syndicated

Columnist

Oriana Fallaci, International Journalist,

Interviewer and Author

Yohanan Ramati, Chairman, Jerusalem

Institute for Western Defense

Gerardo Joffe, FLAME (Facts & Logic

About the Middle East)

Mortimer Zuckerman, Editor in Chief -

US News and World Report

Time Magazine

Washington Post - Attn: Bob Woodward

International Jerusalem Post

The Weekly Standard – Bill Kristol, Editor

The Wall Street Journal - Editorial and

Op-Ed Department

Los Angeles Times, Op-Ed Department

Dr. and Mrs. Jordan Phillips,

Medical Books for China International