PLAIN TALK

 

 

Leonard Horwin                                                                                                                       March / April 2007

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2008 Presidential Election
A Candidacy of "Firsts"
                                                                                                                              

Questions and Answers are cited below as "Q" and "A"

The 2008 presidential race is expected to be the first in decades that won't include a sitting president or vice president in the field of candidates vying for the White House.

Democratic Candidates

Hillary Rodman Clinton
Female Presidential Candidate

1. Q: Is America ready to elect a woman in 2008?

A: "Over the past eight years, in the view of analysts from both parties, the country has shifted markedly on the issue of gender, to the point where they say voters could very well be open to electing a woman in 2008."
(www.nytimes.com - The Pattern May Change, if...)

"Hillary's vote and continuing stance on the Iraq War is her Achilles heel, as is the fact that she is a woman."
(Rapid Fire Silverbullets 2008 Candidates)

"Her last name being Clinton is at the same time a disadvantage and an advantage. Disadvantages due to the dynasty objection, and the polarizing affect she may have on the opposing side."
(Rapid Fire Silverbullets 2008 Candidates)"

"The 2008 Presidential field presents a veritable cornucopia of potential firsts -
A woman, an African American, a Hispanic, a Mormon, and, representing the attribute perhaps most sensitive for discussion, a contender who would be the oldest person ever to assume the American presidency."
(www.csmonitor.com - In 2008 race presidential 'firsts' are possible


"Polls on gender, race, ethnicity, religion, and age asked generically, without a specific name attached - lay out the contours of each candidate's challenge. In the latest Gallup poll:
Eleven percent of voters say they would not vote for a woman if their party nominated one, 5 percent would not vote for an African-American, and 24 percent would not vote for a Mormon. In all questions, the generic candidate is described as 'a generally well-qualified person for president who happened to be [fill in the blank.']

According to Gallup, 87 percent of Americans say they are willing to vote for an unnamed Hispanic nominee; and 12 percent are not. But in the same Gallup poll, taken Feb. 9-11, the percentage of Americans saying they are unwilling to vote for an unnamed 72-year-old - a whopping 42 percent."
(www.csmonitor.com - In 2008 race presidential 'firsts' are possible



Barack Obama
African American Presidential Candidate

2. Q: Can an African American win the presidential election in 2008?

A: "Mr. Obama is in many ways an unusual African American politician, and that is why many Democrats and Republicans, view him as so viable. Mr. Obama is a member of a post-civil rights generation of black politicians and is not identified with leaders like Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton of New York." (Jesse Jackson ran for president in 1984 and 1988).

"Many analysts suggested that changing voter attitudes can best be measured in choices for governors, since they, like presidents, are judged as chief executives, rather than legislators. There will be one black governor next year - Deval L. Patrick in Massachusetts, the second in the nation since Reconstruction."

"By contrast, women will be governors of nine states, including Washington, Arizona and Michigan."
(Rapid Fire Silverbullets 2008 Candidates)

Bill Richardson
Mexican-American Presidential Candidate

3. Q: Does Gov. Richardson's Hispanic origin give him an edge by having the largest growing voting bloc in America?

A: "Bill Richardson is portly and jovial; he is moderate, measured and speaks . . . clearly. He is a sure bet to win the largest growing voting bloc in America; the Hispanic vote (those who say that, because he is Mexican, other Hispanics may not feel the need to vote for him are in for a shock). Also, due to the fact that Native Americans make up a large portion of New Mexico, one can presume that many in the Native American community will also support Bill Richardson."
(Rapid Fire Silverbullets 2008 Candidates)

John Edwards
The Only Southern Candidate Running

4. What is John Edwards' voter base?

"John Edwards is the only outsider white southern male in the top contender bunch. . . . By concentrating on cultivating organized labor, Edwards has enamored himself to voters who want to see the shrinking power of unions reversed."

"As the only southern candidate running, he's also in line to receive a sizeable portion of the non-ethnic southern voters."

"He may get the 'swoon' vote that Obama doesn't get, the union vote, the populist vote, and the self-perpetuating 'minorities can't win, so I'll vote for this white guy' vote."
(Rapid Fire Silverbullets 2008 Candidates)

Republican Candidates

John McCain
"If elected he would be the oldest person ever to assume the American presidency."

5. Q: Will age be a factor in the 2008 election?

A: "McCain has emerged as the Republican field's strongest proponent of an aggressive approach to the Iraq war and of Mr. Bush's decision in January to deploy more soldiers, primarily in Baghdad."

"Age could also play a role as he will be 76 at the end of a first term, three years older than Ronald Reagan was then."
(Electoral-Vote.com).

Rudy Giuliani
Twice Divorced/Thrice-Married

6. Q: Will adultery and divorce become a major campaign issue in 2008?

A: "Conventional wisdom has been that as Giuliani support of abortion rights, gay rights and gun control becomes better known, he will be toast among social conservatives who vote in GOP primaries and caucuses. . . . But Giuliani's poll standing has risen the more he has been on the stump, where a lot of coverage has focused on this twice-divorced candidate's attempts to explain himself to dubious cultural conservatives."

"Yet, as he has moved around the country, Giuliani leads Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., to 44-21% in the latest Washington Post - ABC News poll, taken Feb. 22-25. A month earlier, Giuliani enjoyed a 7 percentage-point advantage."
(www.usatoday.com - Guiliani's not-so-wild card in 2008)

Newt Gingrich
Twice Divorced/Thrice-Married

"Like Giuliani, Gingrich has a bit of personal baggage that would come out in a campaign. He divorced his first wife to marry his second wife and later divorced wife No. 2 to marry a House aid 23 years his junior."

"Gingrich engineered the Republican revolution of 1994, but like Robespierre and Tom Delay, was consumed by his own revolution."
(Electoral-Vote.com).

Mitt Romney
Mormon Candidate

7. Q: What role will religion play in the 2008 election?

A: "Mitt Romney has two major problems. First, he was a 1-term governor of Massachusetts, (a state not known for launching the careers of conservative Republicans), and second, he is a Mormon, and unfortunately many evangelicals don't like Mormons on theological grounds."
(Electoral-Vote.com).

"However, Mormon religion could benefit him in Utah, which is scheduled to hold its primary on February 5, 2008, although more generally the effect of faith remains an unknown and the subject of ongoing discussion."
(www.gwu.edu - Romney - Declared 2008 Candidate for President).

Romney has other problems besides his Mormon religion "In 1992 he held a fund raiser for a Democrat trying to take a Senate Seat away from the Republicans in Utah. Consequently, some Republicans question how sincere his devotion to the Republican party and conservative cause is." (Electoral-Vote.com).
"Romney . . . is viewed with suspicion as a flip-flopper who's recently reversed his earlier liberal views on abortion rights and gay rights to appeal to social conservatives."
(www.realcities.com - Giuliani reaches out, religious conservatives shop around)


* * *

cc: George W. Bush, President

George H.W. Bush, Former President

Richard Cheney, Vice President

John Kerry, Senator

Condoleezza Rice, Secretary of State

Robert M. Gates, Secretary of Defense

Colonel Oliver North

Michael Chertoff, Secretary of Homeland Security

Alberto Gonzales, U.S. Attorney General

Barack Obama, U.S. Senator

Tony Blair, Prime Minister of Great Britain

Jack Straw, British Foreign Secretary

Newt Gingrich, Former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives

Ehud Olmert, Prime Minister of Israel

His Excellency Daniel Ayalon Ambassador of Israel

Benjamin Netanyahu, Economy Minister for the Israeli Government

Israel's "Women In Green"

National Unity Coalition for Israel

Arianna Huffington, Syndicated Columnist

Yohanan Ramati, Chairman, Jerusalem Institute for Western Defense

Gerardo Joffe, FLAME (Facts & Logic About the Middle East)

Mortimer Zuckerman, Editor in Chief - US News and World Report

Time Magazine

Washington Post - Attn: Bob Woodward

International Jerusalem Post

The Weekly Standard - Bill Kristol, Editor

The Wall Street Journal - Editorial and Op-Ed Department

The New York Times, Op-Ed Department

Los Angeles Times, Op-Ed Department

Dr. and Mrs. Jordan Phillips, Medical Books for China International